Convertibles: Open-top cars are slowly running out of air

Convertibles bring with them a touch of luxury. Many people associate a roofless vehicle with a feeling of freedom, summer days and vacation. Most convertibles are designed as two-seaters and are mainly taken on a breezy spin in the warmer months. As a second or third car, they stand for economic growth and personal success more than any other model. No wonder, as they often offer less car for more money.

But is this still up to date? Or do open-top fun vehicles only play a minor role in times of new  mobility standards? Data analysts from automotive market researcher JATO Dynamics compared the German registration figures for convertible and Targa models from 2004 and 2023. They also wanted to know which brands and models are still in demand and how the price level has changed.

Even major manufacturers have dropped out

For many years, driving “topless” was an unbroken trend in Germany. In 1989, Mazda reignited the enthusiasm for convertibles with the MX-5. As a result, more and more manufacturers brought open-top models onto the market – from the bonsai roadster to luxury. For years, registration figures went in one direction only: upwards. But for some time now, sales have been falling steadily – and not just in Germany. Established manufacturers such as Volvo, Opel, Nissan and Ford (except in the USA) have long since ceased production. Even Peugeot — for a long time the industry leader with bestsellers such as the cc models 206, 207, 307 and 308 — said goodbye to open-air driving.

In recent years, one model after the other has been discontinued, and even SUV convertibles are selling rather sluggishly. Volkswagen is therefore closing the roof for good after 75 years. According to the manufacturer, there will no longer be an open-top version of the new T-Roc, which will be launched in 2025. The first T-Roc convertible was only presented in 2019. Other open-top VW models such as the New Beetle Cabrio and Eos are long gone, and production of the Golf Cabrio has even been discontinued.

Sales shrunk by more than half

As the chart shows, new convertible registrations have continued to fall over the past 20 years. While a good 161,000 topless vehicles were registered in Germany in 2004, the figure was just under 69,000 in 2023. The five best-selling models in 2004 alone accounted for almost the same number of units. That is a decline of more than 57 percent. The biggest slumps occurred in 2009 and 2020 – after the financial market crisis in 2008 and then after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Even though there were occasional small upturns, the downward trend has continued to this day.

The variety of products on offer has changed only slightly over the same period. In 2004, customers could choose from 60 different convertible and Targa models; in 2023, there were slightly more. The Fiat 500 (15,992 units), the open-top Mini (10,359) and the VW T-Roc (8,450) were particularly popular last year. The BMW 4 Series, the first premium model, followed in fourth place. 20 years ago, the Mercedes SLK and the two Peugeot models 206 and 306 took the top three places. There are no successors to any of these three today.

Sharp rise in prices

In contrast, the average price has more than doubled since 2004. If sales figures fall, the higher costs for the development of convertibles are usually no longer worthwhile. And so the cheaper models disappear from the market first. As a result, there are hardly any suppliers of open-top cars apart from the premium brands. Whereas in 2004 there were still numerous offers for less than 20,000 euros with the Citroen C3, Daihatsu Copen, Ford Streetcar, Opel Tigra and the Smart Cabrio, Roadster and ForTwo models, today there are mainly vehicles on offer for more than 50,000 euros.

But things can also get really expensive, and the sky seems to be the limit here. Compared to the Ferrari SP 90 or Lamborghini Aventador, a current Mazda MX-5 is almost a bargain – with an average price of 37,000 euros. “Convertibles have almost become a niche product. Apparently, the costly production of small quantities is only economical for premium manufacturers,” suspects Eric Haase, Managing Director of Jato Dynamics in Germany.

If you still want something relatively cheap, you can get the 500C from Fiat, the open-top ForTwo from Smart or order the Mini Cabrio. Although prices have risen steadily over the past 20 years, manufacturers have made further substantial increases after the Covid-19 pandemic in order to stabilize sales. Among the top 10 convertibles, average prices have risen from around 32,000 euros (2004) to more than 67,000 euros, while registration figures have fallen from a good 105,000 to just under 68,000 units (2023) since 2004. While the Mercedes CLK series topped the price list in 2004 at more than €52,000, in 2023 two models, the Porsche 911 and Mercedes SL, led the way.

Convertibles are now fully-fledged cars. The fact that they are no longer regarded as mere second or third cars does not seem to convince many. However, Mazda will probably remain a notable exception in the future. After the Japanese company revived the compact “fun roadster” segment 35 years ago with the MX-5, the open-top two-seater still has a firm place in the model range in its fourth generation – and in every annual convertible statistic.

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