China brings minivans back to life

Sometimes history doesn’t just repeat itself once. Sometimes it even repeats itself twice. Almost exactly 13 years ago, numerous media outlets ran the headline “The return of the MPV”. After family-friendly MPVs (multipurpose vehicles) such as Renault Espace, Chrysler Voyager and later VW Sharan enjoyed unprecedented sales success from the mid-1980s onwards, enthusiasm waned considerably from the mid-2000s onwards. One model after another of the practical yet not particularly attractive multifunctional vehicles with seven or more seats disappeared from the showrooms. Others, such as Volkswagen’s Touran or Multivan, remained. And continued to find their customers.

Then the comeback of 2012. Ford, for example, launched the Tourneo and B-Max models, Dacia introduced Lodgy and Opel brought the Combo onto the market. A new Espace generation also made its debut in 2014 to coincide with its 30th birthday. This time, however, some manufacturers used commercial vehicle models as the basis for the new vans, true to the motto “What’s good for boxes and crates can also be used for children and cones”.

Numerous vans were simply offered in a family-friendly version. As a rule, these vehicles had more storage space than conventional vans but were significantly cheaper. However, the second wave didn’t last long and sales fell significantly. MPVs ultimately had no chance against the triumphant advance of SUVs.

But for some time now, minivans have been on the move again. With electromobility paving the way for new drivetrains and vehicle architectures, a new era of space-efficient automotive design may be on the horizon. Unlike in the 2010s, however, this time it is not the European or Japanese manufacturers who are enforcing the trend. Today, the Chinese are setting the pace. Automotive market analysts at JATO Dynamics have taken a closer look at how the MPV segment has evolved in Germany and China since 2015. How has market share shifted? Which brands are offering how many models? And which vehicles are proving most successful in each country?

Market share similar – sales figures very different

“If you only look at the market share, the two countries do not differ greatly,” says Steffen Michulski, Regional Consultant Europe at JATO Dynamics. In 2015, minivans had a market share of 2.0 percent in Germany and 2.5 percent in China. Last year, the figures were even closer: in Germany, they had risen to 3.6 percent, while in China, MPVs accounted for 3.3 percent.

“But when you look at the sales figures, the contrast becomes striking,” says Michulski. That’s when it quickly becomes clear why the MPV’s second comeback is being driven by China. In 2015, almost 557,000 minivans were sold there, in 2024 it was even more than 915,000 – an increase of 64 percent. In Germany, on the other hand, fewer than 64,000 MPVs were sold in 2015, but last year it was more than 100,000 again. That’s about as much as was sold by classic saloons – but less than a tenth of what SUVs achieved. And: In China, the most popular minivan, the Denza D9 alone sold this many units.

So it’s no wonder that the difference in brands and models sold is even greater. No fewer than 61 different models from 32 domestic and foreign brands found customers in China last year. The two most successful models after the Denza were two Toyota models ahead of a Buick. Trumpchi – a Chinese, not an American brand was the most successful brand with three models in the top 10 sales. The half a million MPVs sold in 2015 were spread across 32 different models from 19 brands. Surprisingly, Denza was not one of them.

Chinese minivans are still scarce in Germany

All but five of the minivans registered in Germany in 2015 were 24 models from just four brands (Ford, Mercedes, Renault and VW). The bestsellers at the time were the VW Sharan, Mercedes V-Class and Seat Alhambra. Last year, however, the 100,000 or so units were spread across no fewer than 68 models – from almost 20 brands. The Mercedes V-Class and VW Multivan were the only ones to achieve more than 10,000 units. However, Maxus was the only Chinese manufacturer with significant sales figures.

Conclusion: Chinese car manufacturers have fully recognized the potential of vehicles with ample space for passengers and freight and have been making them acceptable again for some time. As with other segments or electric vehicles, it is probably only a matter of time before they start offering the new generation of minivans in larger numbers in our country too.