German CO2 fleet value only slowly approaching EU limit

The new CO2 limits for car manufacturers have been in force in the European Union since the beginning of the year. New passenger cars may now only emit a maximum of 95 grams of CO2 per kilometre on average for the fleet. Initially, 95 percent of the new car fleet must comply with the limit. From 2021, the limit will then apply to the entire fleet. Those who emit more must pay. And they will have to pay 95 euros for each gram per car.

This means that a lot would be due if the manufacturers did not take countermeasures soon. And at the moment it does not look as if they will reach the target this year. But hope is in sight. The trend – also in Germany – is going in the right direction. This is shown by the average monthly emission figures* that JATO Dynamics has calculated for the past year from new registrations.

Downward trend initiated

It was striking that the fleet average remained relatively constant in the first eight months of 2019. It remained stable at around 126g CO2/km. Sometimes it was slightly higher (April), sometimes slightly lower (July). However, a real trend reversal was then heralded from August onwards. The value dropped to 121.1 g CO2/km in October. Although it was still a good 26 g above target for this month, the positive trend continued in the following month. A changed model policy and various product measures bore their first fruits. The slight increase in December was probably due to the stricter limit value from 2020. Shortly before the end of the year, manufacturers still allowed inventories with high CO2 emissions due to the threat of fines. But the downward trend seems to have started. And a further decline in the fleet average can be expected in 2020 as well.

All figures come from the JATO Emission Performance Report, which compiles data for 16 European countries every month. The report can be ordered from JATO Dynamics.

* Average weighted CO2 emissions according to NEDC taking into account individual manufacturer targets and supercredits on a monthly basis. Supercredits are allowances in the calculation of average specific CO2 emissions: Emission-free and low emission vehicles up to 50g CO2/km count more with a certain factor. The calculation used for the figures shown refers to the EU limit for 2021: 100% target fulfilment and supercredit factor 1.67.

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