Germans have fewer arguments in favor of Plug-In Hybrids
After the weak years during the coronavirus pandemic, the German car market recovered somewhat last year. This was mainly due to commercial sales – private new registrations, on the other hand, continued to fall. There were also differences between the various drive concepts. While sales of electric cars increased, plug-in hybrids (PHEV), known as a bridging technology, fell out of favor with buyers. Even if the electric range is nowhere near comparable to that of a vehicle with a purely battery-electric drive (BEV), numerous customers were able to warm to cars with dual drive systems in previous years, as the maximum possible subsidy in Germany of 6,750 euros from the state and manufacturer compensated for the comparatively higher acquisition costs.
However, according to a study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) and the Fraunhofer Institute, plug-in hybrids turned out to be less environmentally friendly than expected. According to the study, the real fuel consumption and CO2 emissions of PHEVs in Europe are on average three to five times higher than the official WLTP values. In addition, real-world fuel consumption has risen with every new model year since 2012. And the real electric driving share is on average between 45 and 49 percent for private cars, but only a maximum of 15 percent for company cars.
For just over a year now, PHEVs have therefore no longer been subsidized in Germany, and the bonus expired at the end of 2022. What impact did this have on the German plug-in hybrid market? The data analysts from automotive market researcher JATO Dynamics took a look at how sales figures developed last year with and in the first year without the state subsidy and which price segments were particularly affected. We also wanted to know how the model range has changed and whether manufacturers have left the plug-in business.
Sales slumped significantly in 2023
As expected, sales figures in Germany fell significantly at the start of 2023 – after another significant increase at the end of the previous year. While registrations remained constant at between 20,000 and 30,000 PHEVs per month in the first nine months of 2022, they rose to almost 70,000 units in the last quarter of December as buyers wanted to benefit from the subsidy. After that, it dropped abruptly. In January 2023, only just under 9,000 plug-in hybrids were sold. Although the figures rose moderately again from February, they remained below 18,000 units sold per month until the end of the year. Total registrations more than halved from over 360,000 in 2022 to just under 160,000 (2023).
A clear indication that the financial support was an important selling point. Nevertheless, PHEVs will continue to find buyers in the future, as they are considered a good compromise for households that can manage with just one vehicle and do not want to forego the advantages of electric mobility or full long-distance capability.
However, the growth in brands and models last year was not to be expected. Although plug-in hybrids are no longer eligible for subsidies, the number of manufacturers and their range of models on the German market has increased. While customers were still able to choose between 96 models from 30 brands in January 2022, the range had risen to 108 models from 33 brands by December 2023. In the meantime, there were even 35 brands with 111 different models. Remarkably, it was not the supposedly omnipresent new Chinese brands, but only established manufacturers apart from WEY that entered or re-entered the German PHEV market. Among them, however, were three other Asians: Honda, Mazda and Suzuki. However, the average number of PHEV models per brand remained almost constant at 3.3. And the average number of model variants has hardly changed at 5.4.
Lower range up to 60,000 euros
However, the average price of plug-in hybrids has increased. While there were still significantly more model versions on offer in the price segments up to €60,000 (254) in January 2022 than in December 2023 (175), the range of models for more than €60,000 was significantly larger at the end of last year. There is a clear connection here with the subsidy, as this was only paid up to a maximum vehicle price of €65,000. Without a state subsidy, there will therefore probably be no more affordable plug-in hybrid models in the future, as the installation of two coordinated drive systems only pays off for manufacturers above a certain margin.
But there is also less and less to be said for PHEVs in other respects, as the average range of even small electric vehicles is increasing, as is the number of charging stations. But as long as car manufacturers need CO2-reduced models to comply with the fleet value of 95 grams of CO2 per kilometer per vehicle, PHEVs will probably remain on offer for a while yet. This is because if a manufacturer exceeds the fleet value, heavy fines will be payable to the European Union.
More about JATO and the products can be found here.